[h=1]Patience is a must for Adley Rutschman, other top MLB draft picks[/h]
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Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman could be the first pick in Monday's amateur draft. Good for the Baltimore Orioles and perhaps for fantasy managers, but it will take a while. Rutschman elicits comparisons to the best catchers that have been available in the draft for the past decade and well beyond, and for fantasy purposes, he is a strong dynasty addition in case he becomes a star. Catcher is a scarce position for fantasy talent, and we could certainly use some more hitters. Chicago White Sox veteran James McCann is currently the No. 5 catcher on the full-season Player Rater, and Minnesota Twins reserve Mitch Garver, who just missed the past few weeks, is 10th. We need help, desperately.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Still, baseball's amateur draft is not at all like the football and basketball drafts. Many college stars in those sports play at the top level right away and drastically alter the blueprint for fantasy managers. Rutschman will not do this for us, nor will high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who might be great someday, but it will be a while. Zion Williamson will be great for the New Orleans Pelicans and fantasy managers in literally four months. Baseball works differently, and let's face it, most first-round picks will either not reach the majors or fail to matter in fantasy. I love a draft and will watch, but be realistic, especially in dynasty formats. Catchers are often poor investments. Heck, even No. 1 overall selections fail.
Two players from the 2017 first round have reached the majors, and one of them is helping us: Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Keston Hiura, with five home runs in 17 games, or one more than Travis Shaw mustered in more than twice the playing time. Hiura seems like a special hitter and perhaps others selected near him two years ago can be as well. Kyle Wright has pitched a bit for the Atlanta Braves, but that is it for players debuting so far. We all like Los Angeles Angels outfield prospect Jo Adell, for example, and perhaps we see him later this season.
Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson, the top pick in the 2015 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks and then foolishly traded to Atlanta, was not a fantasy asset last season. He reached double digits in home runs and stolen bases, which we like, but also batted on the wrong side of .240 for the second consecutive full season, and there seemed little cause to believe he would change that soon. Well, he did. Now in his age-25 season, Swanson already has 12 home runs and five steals in 59 games, and he has greatly improved his contact and strikeout rates. He hits second in a strong lineup, and Ozzie Albies, the No. 40 pick in ESPN average live drafts, hits sixth and has lesser numbers. Things change quickly in fantasy, but sometimes we must exercise patience.
Weekend takeaways
• Thoughts from Sunday Night Baseball, other than how bad New York Yankeesoutfielder Clint Frazier is defensively: Well, the club will get reinforcements back soon, it seems, starting with shortstop Didi Gregorius this week, and at least it appears as if outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton could play this month. Frazier, offensively, can be an extra-base-hit machine and perhaps hit 30 home runs someday, but there is no sign of the walk rate we saw in the minors. He abandoned that approach. I am more impressed by Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis, who looks capable defensively, even at second base, and really should play first base regularly. At the plate, he rakes and knows which pitches to swing at and which to avoid. Chavis is an awesome middle infielder for ESPN leagues, but as pointed out by my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft on Monday's Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast, he has slumped the past few weeks as pitchers figure him out a bit. Same thing happened to Christian Walker and figures to happen to Austin Riley. Meanwhile, Luke Voitwill hit 35 home runs this season. One cannot blame the Cardinals for a hasty dumping of him, since Voit was older and did not hit like this for them, but wow, this is all legit.
• Changes are coming for the Milwaukee Brewers' rotation, as right-hander Jimmy Nelson, so good in 2017 until injuring the pitching shoulder while running the bases, could return to the majors on Wednesday. It does not mean Nelson will strike out more than 10 batters per nine innings or win double-digit games with a strong ERA and WHIP, but I added him in a league or two -- to my bench -- just in case he looks awesome. Word from his rehab starts is he did not look so good, but the first-place Brewers need reinforcements because Opening Day starter Jhoulys Chacin hit the injured list with an inflated ERA and WHIP. Corbin Burnes is still in relief and even got a save. Nelson probably does not get to throw 100 pitches this week, but we should watch.
• Those needing stolen bases had to notice Houston Astros speedster Myles Straw netting three of them Sunday, with his three singles and a walk, but there is no guarantee here of regular playing time. Straw, outfield-eligible in ESPN leagues, can play shortstop, but who knows if the Astros, even with Carlos Correa out awhile, will play him there. Something to watch, though, because Straw could be a top-10 stolen base threat with regular opportunities.
• I made a really big and, according to colleagues in the fantasy industry, unwise trade over the weekend to acquire Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte, mainly because I was desperate for stolen bases. However, the key to the trade, I believe, are the throw-ins coming back my way. It's a 15-team mixed format with on-base percentage instead of batting average, and Marte does not rock in OBP, but Los Angeles Angels infielder/outfielder David Fletcher does. The guy gets on base, with more walks than whiffs, and could steal 10 more bases and score 60 more runs as well. I also got Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker, who looked out of favor upon the first Kevin Cron recall, but he has two home runs, five RBIs and three multihit games in his past four. One has to give up something to get something, and while I might lose the trade overall if Edwin Encarnacion and Miguel Sano hit 20 more home runs each (which I doubt), I will gain in the standings. That is really all that should matter!
Health report
• I promise I had nothing to do with it, but two days after I spoke to Texas Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, who has morphed into a fantasy monster, he hurt his left oblique and left a game, then went on the injured list Sunday. The absence figures to last more than 10 days, likely until the All-Star break next month. Oh well! The Rangers should play Danny Santana and Delino DeShieldsin center field, but fantasy managers should do better. Keep Gallo rostered, as he is among the top 20 choices for hitters on the Player Rater.
• Jay Bruce used to be a solid fantasy provider, good for 30 home runs, 90-something runs batted in and a .250 or so batting average, but he sure did not supply that in 2018, and after his weekend trade to the Philadelphia Phillies, his value does not rise. The Phillies probably play him somewhat regularly in left field against right-handed pitchers, moving Andrew McCutchen to center field (ugh), so there is some interest for those needing power in deeper formats. This trade is bad news for struggling Nick Williams, and I think Scott Kingery will take over third base for slumping Maikel Franco, who just does not get it. He did in early April but abandoned a successful approach, yet again. Frankly, those in NL-only formats should prefer Bruce over Williams and Franco now. As for Seattle, I wish I could tell you someone really good and deserving will get the Bruce plate appearances, but I cannot.
Closing time
• Nobody throws harder than St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jordan Hicks, but when he cannot find the strike zone, things get bad. That occurred again on Sunday, and John Gant, who throws hard himself and is having an excellent season sans baserunners, saved his third game. I bet more are pending. Hicks was a walker last season, and only recently has the affliction resurfaced. The Cardinals claim he remains the closer, but with Gant and Carlos Martinezlurking, not to mention the possibility of free agent Craig Kimbrel -- though he would not pitch in June anyway -- I would expect Hicks to fall short of saving 20 more games. Sorry.
• Nobody knows which right-hander gets the next Boston save. I added Marcus Walden to a few teams and he was warming in the eighth inning Sunday as Matt Barnes nearly imploded due to the rain, but ultimately he did not pitch. Brandon Workman worked the ninth and got the save. How utterly ridiculous that if it's 8-4, there is no save, but it was 8-5 so there was one? I hate that save rule. Barnes still looks like the best Boston reliever to me, all things considered, but it is clear manager Alex Cora wants him in the eighth inning. Period. At this point, I think we can avoid Workman, Walden and Ryan Brasier, for I doubt any pitcher in this pen earns 15 saves.
W2W4
• A light schedule awaits baseball fans because tonight is the latest amateur draft. This is not like football and hoops. Few people know who the top amateur baseball players are, and it's quite likely none of them plays in the majors until at least late in 2020. Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman will likely go first overall to Baltimore, but I do advise fantasy managers, even in dynasty formats, to be cool here. Catchers are poor investments in keeper leagues. Rutschman might be awesome, like Buster Posey, but few catchers have been awesome for more than a five-year period in fantasy this century. Posey is it. Perhaps Gary Sanchez will be. Anyway, enjoy the draft. I love a draft, even if most of the first round will not help a fantasy manager ever.
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</article>• Top offseason prizes Bryce Harper and Manny Machado meet up in San Diego for Phillies-Padres, and investors for each have complained that they are overrated in real life and fantasy. Perhaps this is true. What the real market bears in $300 million deals is not our concern, nor does it matter anymore what you spent for them in a draft or an auction. It is June. However, Harper hit .249 last season with 34 home runs, and I think he does something just like that again. The Phillies needed his presence and the OBP and they are getting it. Harper is not a second-round pick for me in fantasy anymore, but I would say fourth round next season makes sense. Meanwhile, Machado should raise his .251 batting average, but some of his peripherals are disturbing. His K rate is way up, his contact is way down and there is little indication he will steal bases. I kind of thought this would happen after he signed a monster contract with a rebuilding team too. Machado could be a fantasy fourth-round choice in 2020 as well. That is a bigger shocker than the Harper value falling.
[h=2]Most recent KaraBlogs[/h]
Friday, May 31: How Joey Gallo morphed into a fantasy monster
Thursday, May 30: Will Alex Bregman steal bases again? Astros-Cubs notes
Wednesday, May 29: Free agent report: Giolito, Dietrich, injuries
Tuesday, May 28: Closer report: Where could Kimbrel go?
Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast: All shows
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman could be the first pick in Monday's amateur draft. Good for the Baltimore Orioles and perhaps for fantasy managers, but it will take a while. Rutschman elicits comparisons to the best catchers that have been available in the draft for the past decade and well beyond, and for fantasy purposes, he is a strong dynasty addition in case he becomes a star. Catcher is a scarce position for fantasy talent, and we could certainly use some more hitters. Chicago White Sox veteran James McCann is currently the No. 5 catcher on the full-season Player Rater, and Minnesota Twins reserve Mitch Garver, who just missed the past few weeks, is 10th. We need help, desperately.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Still, baseball's amateur draft is not at all like the football and basketball drafts. Many college stars in those sports play at the top level right away and drastically alter the blueprint for fantasy managers. Rutschman will not do this for us, nor will high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who might be great someday, but it will be a while. Zion Williamson will be great for the New Orleans Pelicans and fantasy managers in literally four months. Baseball works differently, and let's face it, most first-round picks will either not reach the majors or fail to matter in fantasy. I love a draft and will watch, but be realistic, especially in dynasty formats. Catchers are often poor investments. Heck, even No. 1 overall selections fail.
Two players from the 2017 first round have reached the majors, and one of them is helping us: Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Keston Hiura, with five home runs in 17 games, or one more than Travis Shaw mustered in more than twice the playing time. Hiura seems like a special hitter and perhaps others selected near him two years ago can be as well. Kyle Wright has pitched a bit for the Atlanta Braves, but that is it for players debuting so far. We all like Los Angeles Angels outfield prospect Jo Adell, for example, and perhaps we see him later this season.
Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson, the top pick in the 2015 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks and then foolishly traded to Atlanta, was not a fantasy asset last season. He reached double digits in home runs and stolen bases, which we like, but also batted on the wrong side of .240 for the second consecutive full season, and there seemed little cause to believe he would change that soon. Well, he did. Now in his age-25 season, Swanson already has 12 home runs and five steals in 59 games, and he has greatly improved his contact and strikeout rates. He hits second in a strong lineup, and Ozzie Albies, the No. 40 pick in ESPN average live drafts, hits sixth and has lesser numbers. Things change quickly in fantasy, but sometimes we must exercise patience.
Weekend takeaways
• Thoughts from Sunday Night Baseball, other than how bad New York Yankeesoutfielder Clint Frazier is defensively: Well, the club will get reinforcements back soon, it seems, starting with shortstop Didi Gregorius this week, and at least it appears as if outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton could play this month. Frazier, offensively, can be an extra-base-hit machine and perhaps hit 30 home runs someday, but there is no sign of the walk rate we saw in the minors. He abandoned that approach. I am more impressed by Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis, who looks capable defensively, even at second base, and really should play first base regularly. At the plate, he rakes and knows which pitches to swing at and which to avoid. Chavis is an awesome middle infielder for ESPN leagues, but as pointed out by my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft on Monday's Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast, he has slumped the past few weeks as pitchers figure him out a bit. Same thing happened to Christian Walker and figures to happen to Austin Riley. Meanwhile, Luke Voitwill hit 35 home runs this season. One cannot blame the Cardinals for a hasty dumping of him, since Voit was older and did not hit like this for them, but wow, this is all legit.
• Changes are coming for the Milwaukee Brewers' rotation, as right-hander Jimmy Nelson, so good in 2017 until injuring the pitching shoulder while running the bases, could return to the majors on Wednesday. It does not mean Nelson will strike out more than 10 batters per nine innings or win double-digit games with a strong ERA and WHIP, but I added him in a league or two -- to my bench -- just in case he looks awesome. Word from his rehab starts is he did not look so good, but the first-place Brewers need reinforcements because Opening Day starter Jhoulys Chacin hit the injured list with an inflated ERA and WHIP. Corbin Burnes is still in relief and even got a save. Nelson probably does not get to throw 100 pitches this week, but we should watch.
• Those needing stolen bases had to notice Houston Astros speedster Myles Straw netting three of them Sunday, with his three singles and a walk, but there is no guarantee here of regular playing time. Straw, outfield-eligible in ESPN leagues, can play shortstop, but who knows if the Astros, even with Carlos Correa out awhile, will play him there. Something to watch, though, because Straw could be a top-10 stolen base threat with regular opportunities.
• I made a really big and, according to colleagues in the fantasy industry, unwise trade over the weekend to acquire Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte, mainly because I was desperate for stolen bases. However, the key to the trade, I believe, are the throw-ins coming back my way. It's a 15-team mixed format with on-base percentage instead of batting average, and Marte does not rock in OBP, but Los Angeles Angels infielder/outfielder David Fletcher does. The guy gets on base, with more walks than whiffs, and could steal 10 more bases and score 60 more runs as well. I also got Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker, who looked out of favor upon the first Kevin Cron recall, but he has two home runs, five RBIs and three multihit games in his past four. One has to give up something to get something, and while I might lose the trade overall if Edwin Encarnacion and Miguel Sano hit 20 more home runs each (which I doubt), I will gain in the standings. That is really all that should matter!
Health report
• I promise I had nothing to do with it, but two days after I spoke to Texas Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, who has morphed into a fantasy monster, he hurt his left oblique and left a game, then went on the injured list Sunday. The absence figures to last more than 10 days, likely until the All-Star break next month. Oh well! The Rangers should play Danny Santana and Delino DeShieldsin center field, but fantasy managers should do better. Keep Gallo rostered, as he is among the top 20 choices for hitters on the Player Rater.
• Jay Bruce used to be a solid fantasy provider, good for 30 home runs, 90-something runs batted in and a .250 or so batting average, but he sure did not supply that in 2018, and after his weekend trade to the Philadelphia Phillies, his value does not rise. The Phillies probably play him somewhat regularly in left field against right-handed pitchers, moving Andrew McCutchen to center field (ugh), so there is some interest for those needing power in deeper formats. This trade is bad news for struggling Nick Williams, and I think Scott Kingery will take over third base for slumping Maikel Franco, who just does not get it. He did in early April but abandoned a successful approach, yet again. Frankly, those in NL-only formats should prefer Bruce over Williams and Franco now. As for Seattle, I wish I could tell you someone really good and deserving will get the Bruce plate appearances, but I cannot.
Closing time
• Nobody throws harder than St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jordan Hicks, but when he cannot find the strike zone, things get bad. That occurred again on Sunday, and John Gant, who throws hard himself and is having an excellent season sans baserunners, saved his third game. I bet more are pending. Hicks was a walker last season, and only recently has the affliction resurfaced. The Cardinals claim he remains the closer, but with Gant and Carlos Martinezlurking, not to mention the possibility of free agent Craig Kimbrel -- though he would not pitch in June anyway -- I would expect Hicks to fall short of saving 20 more games. Sorry.
• Nobody knows which right-hander gets the next Boston save. I added Marcus Walden to a few teams and he was warming in the eighth inning Sunday as Matt Barnes nearly imploded due to the rain, but ultimately he did not pitch. Brandon Workman worked the ninth and got the save. How utterly ridiculous that if it's 8-4, there is no save, but it was 8-5 so there was one? I hate that save rule. Barnes still looks like the best Boston reliever to me, all things considered, but it is clear manager Alex Cora wants him in the eighth inning. Period. At this point, I think we can avoid Workman, Walden and Ryan Brasier, for I doubt any pitcher in this pen earns 15 saves.
W2W4
• A light schedule awaits baseball fans because tonight is the latest amateur draft. This is not like football and hoops. Few people know who the top amateur baseball players are, and it's quite likely none of them plays in the majors until at least late in 2020. Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman will likely go first overall to Baltimore, but I do advise fantasy managers, even in dynasty formats, to be cool here. Catchers are poor investments in keeper leagues. Rutschman might be awesome, like Buster Posey, but few catchers have been awesome for more than a five-year period in fantasy this century. Posey is it. Perhaps Gary Sanchez will be. Anyway, enjoy the draft. I love a draft, even if most of the first round will not help a fantasy manager ever.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>• Top offseason prizes Bryce Harper and Manny Machado meet up in San Diego for Phillies-Padres, and investors for each have complained that they are overrated in real life and fantasy. Perhaps this is true. What the real market bears in $300 million deals is not our concern, nor does it matter anymore what you spent for them in a draft or an auction. It is June. However, Harper hit .249 last season with 34 home runs, and I think he does something just like that again. The Phillies needed his presence and the OBP and they are getting it. Harper is not a second-round pick for me in fantasy anymore, but I would say fourth round next season makes sense. Meanwhile, Machado should raise his .251 batting average, but some of his peripherals are disturbing. His K rate is way up, his contact is way down and there is little indication he will steal bases. I kind of thought this would happen after he signed a monster contract with a rebuilding team too. Machado could be a fantasy fourth-round choice in 2020 as well. That is a bigger shocker than the Harper value falling.
[h=2]Most recent KaraBlogs[/h]
Friday, May 31: How Joey Gallo morphed into a fantasy monster
Thursday, May 30: Will Alex Bregman steal bases again? Astros-Cubs notes
Wednesday, May 29: Free agent report: Giolito, Dietrich, injuries
Tuesday, May 28: Closer report: Where could Kimbrel go?
Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast: All shows
